Urban Fire Risk Management in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania: A Spatial, Operational, and Institutional Assessment

Abstract

Fire incidents pose a significant threat to urban residents in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, particularly within high-density unplanned settlements. This study assessed urban fire risk management in Dar es Salaam City, examining spatial-temporal incident patterns, institutional response capacity, and infrastructure performance. A convergent parallel mixed-methods design was employed, integrating Key Informant Interviews ), Focus Group Discussions , structured field observations, and secondary fire incident records (2016–2020) with ArcGIS-based spatial analysis, including Kernel Density Estimation, Network Service Area Analysis, and one-way ANOVA. A total of 2,119 fire incidents were recorded, with Ilala Municipal Council recording the highest incidence (n=603; 28.45%), followed by Kinondoni (n=548; 25.86%), Ubungo (n=427; 20.15%), Temeke (n=285; 13.45%) and Kigamboni (n=256; 12.09%). Residential and institutional structures accounted for 76% of all incidents. Rescue success rates remained critically low, rising from 4.3% to 13.2% with Ubungo recording the lowest municipal rate (11.1%) due to the absence of a dedicated fire station. The study recommends decentralization of fire station distribution, rehabilitation of non-functional hydrants, adoption of digital spatial data management, and integration of fire safety standards into urban planning frameworks.